Wednesday, December 29, 2010
An examination of the electoral map route to victory for Palin makes everything clear. If on election night Florida goes for Obama, then Republican supporters might as well turn off the television, as there is no combination of states, subsequent to the loss of Florida, which can give the Republicans the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.
This suggests that a good VP choice for Palin would be a Catholic with experience credentials such as Rudy Giuliani, or an Hispanic Catholic from Florida, i.e., Marco Rubio. Both would appeal to the Hispanic voting block in Florida and in the vital southwest states. (Rubio would the obvious choice, based purely on pragmatism.)
Assuming Florida goes for the G.O.P., then North Carolina and Indiana should come back into the fold. Virginia is crucial, as 270 EV’s can’t be reached without it unless the Hispanic vote in Nevada or New Mexico can be won over to some degree. Given this scenario, the absolute key states start to unfold.
Ohio and Iowa are battleground states, each with its own peculiarities. Arizona, Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, and Nevada are states where the Hispanic/Catholic vote will be crucial. Having a base in Arizona would allow Palin substantial time to make as many visits to these states as would be necessary.
Palin has many allies who can take up the cudgels on her behalf too, which is a legacy of her brilliant endorsement program. These include McCain, Gospar, Brewer, new Governor Terry Branstad in Iowa, and, of course, Governor Perry in Texas.
It is obvious that minimal time and resources will need to be spent in the Eastern or Western states or in the safe states of the South and Mid-West. This is an excellent situation, as it allows for the maximum spend in time, advertising, and supporters’ energy where it is needed most.
Once again, Palin confounds her critics, who are dumbfounded as to why Bristol has purchased a house in Arizona. Let them continue to write her off as having no electoral skills - they will be utterly undone in November 2012.